Rapid surveillance of COVID-19 in the United States using a prospective space-time scan statistic: Detecting and evaluating emerging clusters
Identifieur interne : 000335 ( 2020/Analysis ); précédent : 000334; suivant : 000336Rapid surveillance of COVID-19 in the United States using a prospective space-time scan statistic: Detecting and evaluating emerging clusters
Auteurs : M. R. Desjardins [États-Unis] ; A. Hohl [États-Unis] ; E. M. Delmelle [États-Unis]Source :
- Applied Geography (Sevenoaks, England) [ 0143-6228 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019, and is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). COVID-19 is a pandemic with an estimated death rate between 1% and 5%; and an estimated
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102202
PubMed: 32287518
PubMed Central: 7139246
Affiliations:
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Hohl</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Geography, The University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, 84112, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Geography, The University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, 84112</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>84112</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Delmelle, E M" sort="Delmelle, E M" uniqKey="Delmelle E" first="E. M." last="Delmelle">E. M. Delmelle</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Department of Geography and Earth Sciences & Center for Applied Geographic Information Science, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, 28223, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Geography and Earth Sciences & Center for Applied Geographic Information Science, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, 28223</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>28223</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">32287518</idno><idno type="pmc">7139246</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7139246</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7139246</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102202</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000E00</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000E00</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000E00</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000E00</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000120</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000120</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">003961</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">003961</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">003961</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0143-6228:2020:Desjardins M:rapid:surveillance:of</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000335</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000335</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000335</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/2020/Extraction">000335</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Rapid surveillance of COVID-19 in the United States using a prospective space-time scan statistic: Detecting and evaluating emerging clusters</title><author><name sortKey="Desjardins, M R" sort="Desjardins, M R" uniqKey="Desjardins M" first="M. R." last="Desjardins">M. R. Desjardins</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Epidemiology & Spatial Science for Public Health Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology & Spatial Science for Public Health Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, 21205</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>21205</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hohl, A" sort="Hohl, A" uniqKey="Hohl A" first="A." last="Hohl">A. Hohl</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Geography, The University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, 84112, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Geography, The University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, 84112</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>84112</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Delmelle, E M" sort="Delmelle, E M" uniqKey="Delmelle E" first="E. M." last="Delmelle">E. M. Delmelle</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Department of Geography and Earth Sciences & Center for Applied Geographic Information Science, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, 28223, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Geography and Earth Sciences & Center for Applied Geographic Information Science, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, 28223</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>28223</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Applied Geography (Sevenoaks, England)</title><idno type="ISSN">0143-6228</idno><idno type="eISSN">0143-6228</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019, and is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). COVID-19 is a pandemic with an estimated death rate between 1% and 5%; and an estimated <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" altimg="si1.svg"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext>R</mml:mtext><mml:mn>0</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> between 2.2 and 6.7 according to various sources. As of March 28th, 2020, there were over 649,000 confirmed cases and 30,249 total deaths, globally. In the United States, there were over 115,500 cases and 1891 deaths and this number is likely to increase rapidly. It is critical to detect clusters of COVID-19 to better allocate resources and improve decision-making as the outbreaks continue to grow. Using daily case data at the county level provided by Johns Hopkins University, we conducted a prospective spatial-temporal analysis with SaTScan. We detect statistically significant space-time clusters of COVID-19 at the county level in the U.S. between January 22nd-March 9th, 2020, and January 22nd-March 27th, 2020. The space-time prospective scan statistic detected “active” and emerging clusters that are present at the end of our study periods – notably, 18 more clusters were detected when adding the updated case data. These timely results can inform public health officials and decision makers about where to improve the allocation of resources, testing sites; also, where to implement stricter quarantines and travel bans. As more data becomes available, the statistic can be rerun to support timely surveillance of COVID-19, demonstrated here. Our research is the first geographic study that utilizes space-time statistics to monitor COVID-19 in the U.S.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bryson Cahn, C" uniqKey="Bryson Cahn C">C. Bryson-Cahn</name></author><author><name sortKey="Duchin, J" uniqKey="Duchin J">J. Duchin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Makarewicz, V A" uniqKey="Makarewicz V">V.A. 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